Currently, diesel prices are at their lowest since October 2021, offering some relief to carriers. Despite weak margins, these have remained relatively stable, as the decline in fuel costs has mitigated the impact of falling linehaul rates. As of September 9, the national average diesel price stood at $3.555 per gallon, down 98.5 cents from a year prior, having dropped 31 cents over the past nine weeks.

While truckload contract rates are expected to decline by 3.5% in 2024, a rebound of 3% is anticipated for 2025. In contrast, less-than-truckload rates are projected to increase by 1.6% in 2024, with a further 2% rise in 2025. The timing of recovery in freight rates and market conditions has posed challenges for industry executives and analysts.

Recent data from FTR indicates that truckload loadings have been stable, with an overall increase of 0.2% expected in 2024. Efficiency improvements among shippers have contributed to this trend. Looking ahead, dry van loadings are predicted to rise by 1.5% in 2025, while refrigerated loadings are expected to see a 2.6% increase. Consistent growth in refrigerated transport is anticipated.

FTR also projects U.S. gross domestic product to grow by 2.5% in 2024, followed by 1.8% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026. The transportation sector will contribute to this growth, with GDP for the sector expected to increase by 2.6% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025, and 3% in 2026. Additionally, the industrial sector is forecasted to experience modest improvements, remaining flat in 2024 and rising by 0.5% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026. The long-term average growth rate for the sector is projected at 0.5%.

Overall, this outlook is promising for the trucking industry, suggesting a recovery beginning in 2025 and continuing into 2026. Many believe that the toughest challenges are now behind us.