“March’s manufacturing sector remained resilient, especially thanks to high auto production, which likely cushioned the decline in truck tonnage following February’s robust figures,” said Bob Costello, Chief Economist at the ATA. “Looking at the first quarter as a whole, we saw only a modest uptick—less than one percent—compared to the final quarter of 2023 and the opening months of 2024. While the growth was modest, this marked the first quarter in two years where the average tonnage both increased sequentially and compared to the same period last year. It suggests that the freight market is beginning to stabilize after a period of uncertainty.”

In March, the seasonally adjusted index registered at 113.4, down from 115.1 in February. This index, which uses 2015 as a baseline (set at 100), showed a slight year-over-year increase of 0.2%, marking the third consecutive month of growth compared to the same period in the previous year—an occurrence not seen since late 2022.

The unadjusted, raw index for March was recorded at 114.6, representing a 9.5% increase from February’s reading of 104.7.

As a key economic indicator, trucking activity reflects broader economic health, accounting for nearly three-quarters of all domestic freight movement, including goods manufactured and retail products. In 2024, trucks moved approximately 11.27 billion tons of freight, generating nearly $906 billion in revenue—almost 77% of the total earnings across all freight transport modes.

Both the seasonally adjusted and raw tonnage figures primarily reflect contract freight movements, as opposed to spot market shipments. The indices are based on surveys conducted among ATA members and have been a reliable measure since the 1970s. It’s important to note that these figures are preliminary and are subject to revision upon final analysis, typically released around the 5th of each month. The full report includes detailed comparisons of month-to-month and year-over-year data, alongside relevant economic and financial insights.

Considering the broader economic environment, tariffs have also played a role in shaping recent freight trends. If tariffs were announced or expected prior to this period, they could have influenced supply chain decisions, leading to shifts in transportation activity. Businesses might have accelerated shipments before tariffs took effect or delayed imports to avoid higher costs, causing fluctuations in freight volumes. Once tariffs are implemented, their impact may either suppress demand for certain imported goods or stimulate domestic production and transportation. The recent data likely reflect a combination of these factors—tariffs, economic conditions, manufacturing trends, and seasonal patterns—all contributing to the current state of the freight industry.

In summary, U.S. trucking activity saw a slight decline in March after a strong February, with tonnage falling by 1.5%. However, the first quarter of 2024 showed modest but positive growth, indicating signs of recovery and stabilization in the freight sector. Manufacturing, particularly auto production, supported freight volumes, and overall, trucking continues to serve as a vital indicator of economic health. While preliminary, these figures suggest that the industry is adjusting to recent policy and economic changes, including tariffs, and is on a path toward more stability.