Shippers Prepare for Rate Hikes in 2025
US shippers, concerned by the prospect of higher trucking costs later this year, are looking to keep rate hikes low in the current round of annual contract talks while trying to maintain their roster of incumbent trucking providers.
That means striking a delicate balance. Shippers say they aren’t interested in taking rate increases at a time when their own demand is soft. But they also don’t want to lose truck capacity they may need in the second half of 2025.
Risk management is rising to the fore, with uncertainty about the impact on demand of potential Trump administration tariffs and whether carriers will tighten capacity.
Discussions with several shippers point to trucking contract rate increases in the low single-digit percentage range in this bidding cycle, both for truckload and less-than-truckload (LTL) providers, with fewer shippers keeping rates flat or gaining additional savings.
Averitt, which has LTL and truckload operations, released a survey this week of more than 1,000 shippers that found more logistics managers are willing to accept some level of rate increase, with 70% of those surveyed expecting higher volumes. The 2025 State of the North American Supply Chain survey found 57.4% of shippers anticipate rate increases, compared with 51.9% in 2024. Only 26.2% said they expect no change in freight rates, while 16.4% believed rates would fall again in 2025. Shippers are expecting rate increases, but different shippers will have different opinions on the size of those increases.
Obviously, supply chain managers are doing all they can to limit the size of the increases. Shippers have yet to feel the pinch of tightening capacity, and that’s put carriers in a more difficult bargaining position. This isn’t like 2021 when shippers were willing to take double-digit increases to lock down capacity. Carriers are increasingly acknowledging the recovery from the freight downturn will take more time than initially expected, with higher rates more likely in the second half of 2025. With the trajectory of the freight market uncertain, some shippers are willing to spend a little more now in hopes they can avoid higher costs later. Spot truckload rates are expected to rise anywhere from 10% to 20% or higher by the end of the year. The shippers that leaned into innovation and strategic carrier programs during the downturn will be in a much better position in this shifting market.