In response, carriers are blanking a significant portion of China-North America sailings, suspending services, and removing an estimated 28% of capacity to the West Coast and 42% to the East Coast in the coming weeks. Many US importers, having accumulated inventory surpluses in anticipation of tariffs, may pause shipments altogether for a few weeks. If tariffs remain high beyond this window, consumers could face shortages and higher prices—particularly for toys, baby products, and sporting goods, most of which are manufactured in China.

Meanwhile, ocean capacity reductions are partly offset by increased demand from Southeast Asia, with bookings from the region rising by roughly 20% in recent weeks. Some carriers are shifting capacity from China to Southeast Asia lanes to meet this demand, though an excessive volume shift could cause congestion, delays, and equipment shortages.

Despite these shifts, container rates have remained relatively stable even as volumes decline. However, lane-specific rates show divergence: rates from Shanghai to Long Beach fell over 30% since April, while rates from Vietnam’s Saigon port have stayed elevated. Air cargo rates, supported by tariff exemptions and the de minimis allowance for Chinese goods, have remained steady at around US$5.58/kg. Yet, the recent suspension of de minimis eligibility on May 2 is expected to cause a significant drop in China-US air cargo volumes and rates moving forward.