The sudden decrease is believed to be closely linked to expectations of new tariffs. Many shippers moved quickly to accelerate shipments to avoid potential cost increases, creating a rush to frontload cargo. As concerns about tariffs grew, the effect on trade flows became even more severe, leading to a rapid slowdown in activity.

During the last week of March and the first week of April, the shipping industry experienced dramatic declines across multiple sectors. Bookings of twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) plummeted by nearly half, dropping 49%. Overall U.S. imports fell by almost two-thirds, decreasing 64%, while exports declined by about 30%. Imports from China saw a sharp decline of 64%, and exports to China dropped by 36%.

This sharp downturn coincided with the U.S. government’s announcement of new tariffs on April 4, which was swiftly followed by retaliatory measures from China on April 5. The combined effect triggered a widespread booking freeze, as companies paused operations to reassess their strategies amid escalating trade tensions.

Implications and Outlook

This volatility highlights how sensitive global trade is to political and economic uncertainties. Historically, tariff disputes have often caused short-term disruptions, but the scale of the recent decline suggests a significant reaction from shippers and carriers, reflecting heightened caution. If trade tensions continue or escalate, further reductions in cargo volumes could lead to delays, increased shipping costs, and potential congestion at ports. Conversely, if tensions ease, a rebound in volumes is possible as companies work to clear the backlog of shipments and restore supply chain stability.

Industry analysts are closely monitoring these developments, as persistent fluctuations could signal broader shifts in international trade patterns and economic prospects. The coming weeks will likely reveal whether this decline is a temporary reaction or a sign of more prolonged disruptions in global trade flows.